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Ford Wealth Report

October 29, 2007

"Regardless of the dollar price involved, one ounce of gold would purchase a good-quality man's suit at the conclusion of the Revolutionary War, the Civil War, the presidency of Franklin Roosevelt, and today." - Peter A. Burshre

The Markets

Black gold (oil) and the shiny yellow metal we simply call “gold” both seem to be coveted items these days.

Last week, crude oil prices reached an intraday all-time high of $92.22 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, according to Barron’s. That’s up nearly 30% from its price on August 24th. Surprisingly (and we’re not complaining), prices at the gas pump have not moved up nearly as much as oil prices. So what’s driving the spike in oil? According to MarketWatch, you can point to falling energy supplies, global political tensions, and weakness in the U.S. dollar.

It’s interesting to note that with all the talk about global warming, going green, and the search for alternative sources of energy, you’d think there’d be less demand for oil and hence, a drop—not a rise—in oil prices. Sometimes, the market appears to be illogical, but long term, it usually comes to its senses.

Gold is another eye-opening situation as it closed at $787.50 per ounce last week on the New York Mercantile Exchange. According to Action Economics, gold shot to its "highest level since January 1980 on a combination of inflation concerns and safe-haven buying in the wake of a sensitive geopolitical environment and renewed concerns about the U.S. growth outlook." Throw in a weak dollar and the possibility of more interest rate cuts and you may have a recipe for continued strong gold prices, they added.

It was way back on January 21, 1980, that gold set its all-time record high of $875.00 per ounce, according to MarketWatch. Of course, after adjusting for inflation, current gold prices are dramatically below their 1980 high, whereas oil prices are very close to their inflation-adjusted all-time high.

With so many things to invest in these days besides the stock market, it seems like there’s always something that’s going up. That’s one good reason why it makes sense to diversify—you may have a better chance to own one of those things that’s going up.


Returns through 10/26/07 1-Week Y-T-D 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year
Dow Jones Industrials 2.1 10.8 14.2 11.0 10.1 6.6
Nasdaq Composite 2.9 16.1 19.3 12.2 15.7 5.9
Standard & Poor's 500 2.3 8.3 11.5 10.6 11.0 5.5

Source: Yahoo! Finance, Barrons
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three-, 5-, and 10-year returns are annualized. Assumes dividends are not reinvested.

Top Headlines:

  • Existing Home Sales dropped 8% for the month of September, marking the lowest level in eight years. September's report provided further evidence of the credit squeeze's effect on the housing market. (10/24)
  • Durable Orders fell farther than expected by 1.7% for the month of September. The decline was led by a record 39% decrease in orders of defense goods. (10/25)

Earnings Snapshot:

  • Merrill Lynch (MER) moved the markets lower in early trading on Wednesday morning after reporting a $7.9 billion write-down for subprime loans and related securities. Further disappointing news came in the company's earnings announcement as the banking giant reported a 94% decrease in 3Q revenue from a year ago. (10/24)
  • American Express (AXP) remained unaffected by the recent credit crunch as the Dow component saw an 11% rise in income to $1.07 bln for the third quarter. The report sent shares soaring in early trading Tuesday. (10/22)
  • Apple (AAPL) shares reached all time highs this week after the tech giant reported a 67% increase in earnings for the fourth quarter. Apple said the strong results were fueled by the success of the iPhone and its carry over popularity into other Mac products. (10/22)
  • Amazon (AMZN) earnings soared to $80 mln for the 3Q, compared to $19 mln a year ago. Shares gapped higher on Wednesday after the news, but went on to correct to previous levels after the opening bell on Thursday on worries about upcoming holiday sales. (10/23)
  • Microsoft (MSFT) shares jumped 12% in early trading Friday after the entertainment and devices division reported a profit $165 mln for the first quarter, compared to a loss of $142 mln a year ago. This was this division's first profitable quarter since 2005. (10/25)

Weekly Focus

LAST WEEK, THE INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE (IRS) released its cost of living adjustments for contributions to a variety of retirement saving vehicles. The limits affecting 401(k) plans, the federal government’s Thrift Savings Plan (TSP), and other similar programs provided for by Section 402(g)(1) remain the same at $15,500. However, the limitation for defined contribution plans under Section 415(c)(1)(A) increased from $45,000 to $46,000 and the annual benefit limitation for a defined benefit plan under Section 415(b)(1)(A) increased from $180,000 to $185,000. Other increases include:

  • The applicable dollar amount under Section 219(g)(3)(B)(i) for determining the deductible amount of an IRA contribution for taxpayers who are active participants filing a joint return or as a qualifying widow(er) increased from $83,000 to $85,000. Additionally, the applicable dollar amount under Section 219(g)(3)(B)(ii) for all other taxpayers (other than married taxpayers filing separate returns) increased from $52,000 to $53,000. The applicable dollar amount under Section 219(g)(7)(A) for a taxpayer who is not an active participant, but whose spouse is an active participant, increased from $156,000 to $159,000.
  • The adjusted gross income limitation under Section 408A(c)(3)(C)(ii)(I) for determining the maximum Roth IRA contribution for taxpayers filing a joint return or as a qualifying widow(er) increased from $156,000 to $159,000. The adjusted gross income limitation under Section 408A(c)(3)(C)(ii)(II) for all other taxpayers (other than married taxpayers filing separate returns) increased from $99,000 to $101,000.

These aren’t exactly huge changes…but every little bit helps.

Each of the following letters stands for a different digit. Determine their values to solve the subtraction problem. This puzzle comes from Scientific American Mind magazine.

A N T E – E T N A = N E A T

Click here for the answer.

 

Best Regards,

Ford Wealth Report

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